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Agricultural value of ENSO information under alternative phase
definition
Chen, C-C | Mccarl, B | Hill, H
Climatic Change [Clim. Change]. Vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 305-325. Aug
2002.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect has been found to
be associated with regional climate variations in many regions of
the world, and, in turn, with variation in crop yields. Previous
studies have found that early releases of ENSO phase information
could permit agricultural producers to make adjustments in their
decisions and in turn generate an increase in agricultural sector
welfare. This study examines whether the value of the agricultural
responses can be enhanced by releasing more detailed ENSO
information. Namely we evaluate the implications for projected
agricultural welfare under release and adaptation to the Stone and
Auliciems five phase definition of ENSO states as opposed to the
more standard three phase definition. This value is estimated
using a stochastic, U.S./global agricultural model representing 22
climate years. The results indicate that the release and
exploitation of the more detailed ENSO phase definition almost
doubles the welfare impact. The results also indicate that there
is room for up to another doubling of information value through
further refinements.
 Descriptors: Article Subject Terms Agriculture | Agrometeorological forecasting | Climate
and agriculture | Climatic changes | Economics | Economics and
agriculture | El Nino phenomena | El Nino-Southern Oscillation
event-climate relationships | Resource management | Sea surface | Southern Oscillation | Surface temperature | Teleconnections | Temperature anomalies | Yield
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